Cov nqi txhuas tuaj yeem nce thiab tom qab ntawd poob thoob plaws xyoo 2022
Nws cia siab tias thoob plaws xyoo 2022, nrog rau kev nthuav dav ntawm alumina muaj peev xwm thiab rov ua kom muaj peev xwm ntawm aluminium, LME aluminium thiab SHFE aluminium yuav hloov pauv ntawm US $ 2, 340-3, 230 / ton thiab RMB 17,{{5} }, 800/ton raws. Tus nqi yuav qhia ib daim ntawv inverted V-puab.
SHANGHAI, Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj 13 - LME txhuas thiab SHFE txhuas yuav tsum nyob nruab nrab ntawm US$2,340-3,230/tonne thiab RMB17,500-24,800/tonne, feem, rau tag nrho xyoo 2022 Raws li alumina muaj peev xwm nthuav dav thiab txhuas muaj peev xwm rov pib hloov pauv. Tus nqi yuav qhia ib daim ntawv inverted V-puab.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Aluminium yuav nce los ntawm 31.82% hauv 2021, thiab cov qauv tuaj yeem muab faib ua ob theem. Txij thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo mus txog rau thaum nruab nrab Lub Kaum Hli, cov nqi txhuas txuas ntxiv tau nce ntxiv vim yog yam xws li kev lag luam txawv teb chaws rov qab los, kev loj hlob ntawm kev xa tawm, kev siv hluav taws xob, thiab skyrocketing txawv teb chaws natural gas nqi. Txij li thaum tsoomfwv hauv nruab nrab tau pib tswj cov nqi hluav taws xob hauv nruab nrab Lub Kaum Hli, cov nqi txhuas tau poob qis, thiab cov nqi them nyiaj poob qis. Txawm li cas los xij, cov nqi tau nce siab nyob rau thaum xaus ntawm lub xyoo thaum nce nqi zog hauv Tebchaws Europe.
Hauv tebchaws, kwv yees li 65% ntawm cov khoom siv bauxite tuaj txawv teb chaws, feem ntau yog los ntawm Guinea, Australia thiab Indonesia. Guinea txoj kev tawm tsam hauv 2021 tsis tau cuam tshuam nws cov khoom xa tawm bauxite. Tsoomfwv Indonesian tau hais ntau zaus los txwv kev xa tawm ntawm bauxite, tab sis yog tias qhov no tuaj yeem tsim los ntawm kev xa tawm los ntawm lwm lub tebchaws, qhov cuam tshuam rau cov khoom siv bauxite hauv tsev kuj tsawg. Txawm li cas los xij, kev ua lag luam tseem yuav tsum tau ua tib zoo saib xyuas cov kev pheej hmoo uas tshwm sim los ntawm qhov xwm txheej tsis ruaj khov nyob txawv teb chaws, thiab Tuam Tshoj cov bauxite yog nyob ntawm kev xa khoom ntau heev.
Txij thaum Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2021, lub ntiaj teb alumina tso zis yog 127 lab tons, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 4.3%, ntawm uas Tuam Tshoj cov alumina tso tawm yog 69.01 lab tons, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 6.5%. Nyob rau hauv 2022, ib tug xov tooj ntawm alumina tej yaam num nyob rau hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws yuav muab tso rau hauv ntau lawm, feem ntau yog nyob rau hauv Indonesia. Tsis tas li ntawd, Jamalco alumina refinery nrog lub peev xwm txhua xyoo ntawm 1.42 lab tons yuav tsum rov pib dua xyoo 2022.
Raws li lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2021, Tuam Tshoj tus alumina ntsia muaj peev xwm yog 89.54 lab tons, nrog lub peev xwm ntau lawm ntawm 72.25 lab tons. Nws tau kwv yees tias 7.3 lab tons ntawm cov peev txheej tsim tawm tshiab yuav raug ntxiv rau xyoo 2022, thiab kev kwv yees kwv yees li ntawm 2 lab tons ntawm cov peev txheej yuav raug rov qab los.
Ntiaj teb no alumina overcapacity.
Nyob rau hauv 2021, lub peev xwm ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv tsev yuav raug txwv los ntawm kev txo hwj chim thiab kev tswj ob lub zog siv. Raws li lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2021, Chalco muaj tag nrho cov peev txheej ntawm 42.83 lab tons, muaj peev xwm ntau lawm ntawm 37.57 lab tons, thiab muaj peev xwm siv tau ntawm 87.7%. Txij Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2021, cov khoom siv txhuas hauv tsev yog 35.45 lab tons, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 5.7%.
Ib txwm noj qeeb? Kev lag luam hluav taws xob tshiab xav tau kev loj hlob
Xyoo 2021, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov vaj tsev hauv tsev thiab kev nqis peev hluav taws xob yuav poob qis, thiab kev siv txhuas yuav raug siab. Raws li qhov xwm txheej hais tias kev tswj hwm vaj tse hauv tsev tseem tsis hloov pauv hauv 2022, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm kev siv vaj tse yuav tseem ntsib kev poob qis.
Tab sis lub zog tshiab muaj peev xwm loj heev.
Piv txwv li, cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias txij lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2021, kev siv txhuas ntawm kev lag luam tsheb hauv tsev yog 2.824 lab tons, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 5.3%. Nws tau kwv yees tias xyoo 2022, kev lag luam tsheb ib txwm siv yuav nce kev noj cov txhuas txhuas los ntawm kwv yees li 130, 000 tons, thiab kev lag luam tsheb tshiab yuav pab txhawb txog 160,{11}} tons ntawm kev noj ntau ntxiv.
Saib rau pem hauv ntej mus rau 2022, cov pace ntawm cov paj laum nce siab los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve xav tias yuav nrawm dua, thiab cov nqi hlau yuav nyob rau hauv siab tag nrho. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj cai nyiaj txiag, nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022, infrastructure peev yuav nce thiab aluminium thov yuav txhim kho. Raws li kev tswj hwm vaj tsev yuav tswj hwm qib tam sim no, kev ua lag luam yuav them sai sai rau kev loj hlob ntawm kev thov rau txhuas hauv lub zog tshiab tsheb thiab kev lag luam photovoltaic. Supply-sab kev txhawj xeeb rau aluminium ntau lawm, suav nrog carbon peaking thiab carbon neutral tswv yim, yuav tsum txwv tsis pub muaj peev xwm txhuas, tab sis tag nrho cov duab yuav tsum tau txhim kho los ntawm 2021.